This study investigates the relationship between Victorian streamflow and several large-scale climate drivers (e.g. ENSO, IPO, IOD, SAM). It is found that identifying a ‘dominant’ climate driver is not a clear cut exercise and that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alone explains only a very small proportion of Victorian streamflow variability, particularly in autumn (a critical time in Victoria’s hydrological and water resources management cycle). This is a crucial insight given that most seasonal forecasting schemes currently used in Australia are based primarily on ENSO relationships. The results presented here show that stratification of Victorian streamflow according to multiple largescale climate drivers, and antecedent catchment conditions, provides significantly differing streamflow distributions. Therefore, incorporation of (a) antecedent catchment conditions into forecasting frameworks and (b) improved insights into the multiple interactions between all relevant large-scale (and local) climate drivers is needed to sustainably manage water resources in climate sensitive regions such as Victoria.
32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (H2009). H2009: Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (Newcastle, N.S.W. 30 November - 3 December, 2009) p. 230-241